I recently commented on an an internet tabloid article criticizing the author for his criticism of President Biden’s unwillingness to engage NATO forces in Ukraine1. Another reader replied to my comment accusing me of total lack of sympathy toward the Ukrainians who were suffering from the siege of war started by Putin. My response was that sympathy for the Ukrainians had nothing to do with my opposition to our involvement in the war, that there are more important reasons to stay out of it. But in hindsight, my sympathy for Ukrainians actually does give me reason to stay out of the war.
Before I explain, it is necessary to point out that Putin did not start the war in Ukraine. It could be said that the war in Ukraine began centuries ago, but in actuality, the current war began in 2014 with the Euro-Maiden revolution. That revolution, which replaced a government that was sympathetic to ethnic Russians and other Russophones in eastern Ukraine with a government that was openly hostile to eastern Ukrainians2, initiated a civil war which has been in progress ever since. Prior to the Russian invasion, the newly elected president Nemetsky was determined to end the civil war, but instead of doing it peacefully3, he chose to apply more force against the dissidents in eastern Ukraine. This was met with greater resistance by eastern Ukrainians and intensification of the civil war.
At this point, it is necessary to point out a number of other factors:
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- the civil war in eastern Ukraine actually constitutes an invasion of eastern Ukraine by western Ukrainians since the actions of the eastern Ukrainians are in defense of their homeland against the aggressive attacks by government forces from Kiev4;
- the civil war is being fought very close to the Ukrainian/Russian border and the threat of spillover is very high, (this, in turn puts at risk the lives of many Russian citizens living near the border);
- Russians on both sides of the border have many relatives and friends whom they care about, and most, if not all, want to end the conflict;
- there is a large amount of trade across the border upon which people on both sides depend heavily; and
- the needs and concerns of citizens on both sides of the border put political pressure on local and national governments to take action to end the war – one way or another5.
Returning to the subject of sympathy for the Ukrainians, Putin made the mistake of believing he could end the war6 and relieve the plight of eastern Ukrainians by putting pressure on the government in Kiev. Initial efforts to pressure Kiev diplomatically only aggravated the situation and ultimately, as the old saying goes, push came to shove. Putin exacerbated his mistake by openly invading Ukraine. Instead of ending the war, his invasion only increased resistance, increased hostility of western Ukrainians against eastern Ukrainians and Russians, and increased the death and and destruction. Now, the media and other players are goading Biden to engage NATO forces in the war. Doing so can only add to the death and destruction as more bombs are dropped on an already decimated country. The simple fact is that weapons kill people and the more weapons you bring to a war, the more people you kill. Look what happened in Vietnam. Look what happened in Afghanistan. Look what happened in Iraq. Then ask, what did we accomplish? The Communists rule in Vietnam, the Taliban rules again in Afghanistan, Iraq is now ruled by a different despot who is allied with Iran, millions of people have been killed, tens of millions of people have been displaced, untold trillions of dollars of property and infrastructure have been destroyed and we have saddled our children and their children with upwards of $20 trillion debt. (Not to mention the destruction to our environment and the wars’ contribution to global warming.) Was it worth it? We seem to suffer from the delusion that war is the solution to all our problems when all it does is exacerbate them.
I know that US/NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine will only exacerbate an already disastrous war, and cause more people to be killed than would die otherwise. That’s what happens in every war we unnecessarily insert ourselves into. With our involvement, the dead will include Americans and other Europeans, in addition to more Ukrainians and Russians. History has proven that expanding a war does not end a war and that there is no war to end all wars until all are dead. I want this war to end, but I do not want all these people to be killed. There will be more than enough death and destruction without our “help”. In the end, it is not because I lack sympathy for the Ukrainians that I oppose our intervention, instead, it is because I am sympathetic toward them and everyone else who will perish or otherwise suffer because of our intervention.
1 Truth in advertising: I am opposed to any US military involvement in the war in Ukraine or any war that does not directly threaten our own national security.
2 President Victor Yanukovych, who was sympathetic toward ethnic Russians and other eastern Ukrainians, was elected largely with their support in 2011. After the Euro-Maiden revolution, he was replaced by Petro Poroshenko who was openly hostile toward eastern Ukrainians, in an election in 2014 in which few eastern Ukrainians participated.
3 It is important to point out that a peaceful solution was available and had been agreed upon by all the major players. In particular, a 13-point agreement had been reached in Minsk and signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of separatist-held regions Donetsk and Luhansk in February 2015. Had this agreement been carried out, the civil war in the east would have been ended.
4 The media like to print in broad generalities and paint Ukrainians as all the same. They are not. There are multiple ethnic groups in Ukraine and major cultural differences between those in the east and those in the west. For western Ukrainians, the war began in the form of civil disobedience toward the newly elected government in Kiev and evolved into a civil war. For eastern Ukrainians, the war began as resistance to oppression by the newly installed government and evolved into a war for independence. Following the Euro-Maiden revolution eastern Ukrainians did not want to separate from Ukraine but were ultimately forced to declare independence due to oppressive cultural and economic measures imposed on them by the government in Kiev whom they didn’t elect and with whom they did not have representation (not unlike our own war of independence in 1776). Their declaration of independence was responded to in the same way the British responded to our declaration of independence and the civil war (or war of independence depending on your perspective) between east and west was ignited.
5 I suspect that Putin was under a lot more pressure than Biden to get involved in the war.
6 Ending the civil war in Ukraine was not Putin’s only motive for invading the country. Other motives included keeping NATO away from Russia’s borders, keeping Ukraine neutral between east and west, eliminating Nazi influence in Ukraine’s government, protecting his own country from the civil war spilling over the border between Russia and Ukraine and, of course, the need to respond to political pressures in his own country.