After 20 years of continuous war, we need to ask ourselves, what have we gained and what was the cost?
Are we richer? It is estimated that taxpayers will have shelled out over $6.4 trillion for our “war on terror” when all is said and done1 2. Where did all that money go and what did we get in return? We know that approximately $1 trillion is required to care for veterans in the out years. We know that approximately $1 trillion is paid as interest on the money borrowed for the war3. We know that a large amount was paid to foreign workers, fighters and politicians.4 We know that, except for HDP/IDP5 pay in combat zones, the uniformed military personnel pay was covered by normal defense spending and did not come out of the $6.4 trillion. We know that major recipients of this money were military contractors. In his research paper, William Hartung6 states that between one third and one half of all military spending goes to military contractors7. Assuming one half goes to contractors for overseas operations, we can estimate that they received about $3.2 trillion for their part in the “war on terror”.
Returning to the question, we see that some people profited and others did not. The bond holders who loaned the money for the war profited. The military contractors (estimated at 3.5 million Americans8) profited and foreign nationals who received money to support our war profited. Those who didn’t profit were everyone else (including active duty military).
Were we victorious? In Afghanistan, the Taliban were in power when we invaded and they regained power after we retreated. In Syria, Bashar Hafez al-Assad was in power when we intervened and he is still in power. In Iraq, we overthrew Saddam Hussein and the Sunni government only to have it replaced with an equally repressive and corrupt Shiite government. In Libya we helped overthrow Muammar Gaddafi and left the country in a failed state in which it remains today.
Have we learned anything? We learned that Saddam Hussein really didn’t have any weapons of mass destruction and had no connections to Al Qaeda, and that we were continuously lied to by our politicians, the media and others. We learned that “spreading democracy” to those who don’t want it is not a good idea. We learned that our intelligence is less than perfect and that our “surgical strikes” create collateral damage that is vastly greater than the value of the intended targets. And some of us learned that killing insurgents creates more insurgents than were killed9. But will we remember any of the lessons learned the next time the war drums are sounded? Given the collective American amnesia regarding lessons learned in war (Vietnam being a case in point), it’s doubtful.
So what does it all amount to? We have spread about $3 trillion among 3.5 million Americans (a little over 1%) another $1 trillion among the money lenders and possibly another $1 trillion among tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of foreign nationals. The rest of us (99%) suffered the loss of 15,000 and the injuries10 of God knows how many friends and loved ones11, and were saddled with the $6.4 trillion debt, plus interest, that will have to be paid in the future12.
In the meantime, we have left 150,000 Afghans dead, 280,000 Iraqis dead, 179,000 Syrians dead and about 15,000 Americans dead13. Add to that the millions of people wounded, the millions of people who were displaced by war, the untold billions (if not trillions) of dollars in ruined or damaged homes, buildings and infrastructure, famine caused by destruction of crops and food production and distribution capabilities and a refugee problem that is raising havoc around the world. Politically, we have created more enemies than we had at the beginning, we have lost credibility as a nation and world opinion of the U.S. has dropped significantly. And last, but not least, all this destruction exacerbates global warming.
How do you compute return on investment (ROI) of something like this? The $6.4 trillion investment is a drop in the bucket compared with the total cost in lives and destruction (the precise figure we will never know). And for what? It is true that a small percentage of Americans profited, but the rest of us only lost14 and the total loss was far greater than the meager gain.
Why? Why do we allow these things to happen? Why do we never learn? The stupidity and the futility of it all is beyond understanding.
1 Source: Costs of War Project, Watson Institute, Brown University.
2 $5.4 trillion was obligated and spent through FY 2020 and $1 trillion is required to care for veterans over the next several years. Most of this money (if not all) was borrowed and must be paid back one way or another.
3 This does not include future interest on the accumulated debt which will add to the total cost over time.
4 Unfortunately, it is impossible to determine how much money went to foreign citizens due to the lack of accounting for money spent by the DOD, State Department and CIA.
5 Hostile Fire Pay/Imminent Danger Pay ($225 per month)
6 Profits of War, William Hartung, Watson Institute, Brown University
7 The Congressional Research Service estimates that military contractors represented 50% or more of the total DoD presence in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
8 The Military and Defense Industry: An Economic Force in the U.S., Aaron Bowman, Site Selection Magazine, special supplement on military economy.
9 General Stanley McChrystal, Special Address to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1 October 2009
10 These include combat injuries (e.g., shrapnel wounds, broken bones, limb loss, second and third degree burns, brain injuries, spinal cord injuries, nerve damage, paralysis, loss of sight and hearing, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)), and non-combat injuries and other medical problems arising in theater (e.g., heat stroke, suicide attempts, respiratory problems, and vehicle accident injuries.)
11 The total count of Americans injured or sickened in the war will never be known, but is typically far greater than the official figures which only include “wounded in action”. Even those are grossly under reported.
12 Sadly, the perception of most Americans is that they were unaffected by the war as the deaths and injuries of friends and loved ones only affected a small percent of the total population and the financial cost of the war was put off to future generations so there was no immediate impact.
13 Human Cost of Post 9/11 Wars, Cost of War Project, Watson Institute, Brown University
14 Unfortunately, those who did profit from the war were immune to its consequences and didn’t lose any loved ones.
In writing this today, I am reminded of the song “Where Have All the Flowers Gone” written by Pete Seeger in the late 1950’s, the lyrics of which are:
Where have all the flowers gone? Long time passing.
Where have all the flowers gone? Long time ago.
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls picked them every one.
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Where have all the young girls gone? Long time passing.
Where have all the young girls gone? Long time ago.
Where have all the young girls gone?
Gone for husbands every one.
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Where have all the husbands gone? Long time passing.
Where have all the husbands gone? Long time ago.
Where have all the husbands gone?
Gone for soldiers every one.
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Where have all the soldiers gone? Long time passing.
Where have all the soldiers gone? Long time ago.
Where have all the soldiers gone?
Gone to graveyards every one.
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Where have all the graveyards gone? Long time passing.
Where have all the graveyards gone? Long time ago.
Where have all the graveyards gone?
Gone to flowers every one.
Oh, When will they ever learn?
Oh, When will they ever learn?
As an aside, it is interesting to note that the inspiration for the lyrics came from those in an old Cossack folk song “Koloda-duda” (Колода-дуда) which he had read in Mikhail Sholokhov’s novel “And Quiet Flows the Don” (Тихий Дон) written in 1934.
“— And where are the reeds?
— The girls gathered them all
— And what of these girls?
— The girls went and got wed
— And what of the Cossacks?
— They have gone to the war…”